Fire RileTier 2

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 18 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Raylam 81 cards · placed #4
• Keith 81 cards · placed #5
• fishball13 85 cards · placed #8
• Pizza 85 cards · placed #11
• Zero0000000000 87 cards · placed #12
• ThomasLi2 83 cards · placed #13
• SkYyeung 83 cards · placed #14
• JYCheung 86 cards · placed #15
• Samson 83 cards · placed #17
• KodamaHajime 85 cards · placed #21
• YOUCAN8J 86 cards · placed #23
• Tonix 84 cards · placed #24
• kcin471 84 cards · placed #26
• 4xkevin 83 cards · placed #28
• BigBear 87 cards · placed #29
• AsToria 83 cards · placed #30
• Emiru 85 cards · placed #31
• Sze315 85 cards · placed #32

In 19 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Regal Inquisition, Cremation Ritual. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Grand Crusader's Ring, Spirit of Fire.

↑ Played more by winners

Crystallized Destiny

Winning decks ran 1.1 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 11, the loser ran more in 5, both ran the same in 3.

Regal Inquisition

Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 9, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 7.

Cremation Ritual

Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 10.

Blinding Orb

Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 13.

Quicksilver Grail

Winning decks ran 0.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 13.

Ghosts of Pendragon

Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.1.

Of 19 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 12.

↓ Played more by losers

Resolute Stand

Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 2.4.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 10, the winner ran more in 7, both ran the same in 2.

Grand Crusader's Ring

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 12.

Spirit of Fire

Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 12.

Smoke Bombs

Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.

Of 19 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 4, both ran the same in 8.